From The Cummings Team® | Serving Leander, Williamson County and Greater Central Texas
Affordability remains the story of the Central Texas housing market this fall. October brought fewer closings and lower median prices across the region, but it also brought something buyers have been waiting for: more negotiating room. At the same time, homes that sold closed closer to their list prices than they did a year ago, a reminder that well-priced homes are still getting attention.
This November 2026 market update uses October 2026 data, the most recent complete figures available from Unlock MLS. We will start with the year-over-year comparison, look at how October compared with September, and then zoom in on Williamson County, where most of our Leander clients live, buy and sell.
Central Texas Year Over Year: Lower Prices, Fewer Closings
Across the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos metropolitan area, 2,114 homes sold in October, an 11.4% decrease from October 2025. The median sales price declined 6.9% to $404,802.
Other year-over-year figures help complete the picture:
- 3,177 new listings entered the market, down 14.3%.
- 13,196 active listings were available, down 2.2%.
- 2,279 sales were pending, down 4.0%.
- Homes spent an average of 76 days on the market, one day fewer than a year earlier.
- Inventory measured 6.2 months, 0.4 months more than October 2025.
- Homes closed for an average of 92.2% of their list price, compared with 91.6% one year earlier.
- Total dollar volume of homes sold was $1.19 billion, down 14.5%.
According to the October 2026 Central Texas Housing Report from Unlock MLS, the lower median price can be attributed to lower-priced homes making up a larger share of sales. Demand was strongest among homes priced between $200,000 and $299,000, which shows just how much affordability is shaping buyer activity right now.
That detail matters. A 6.9% drop in the median does not mean every home lost 6.9% of its value. It means the mix of homes that sold in October leaned toward lower price points.
There is also good news beneath the headline. Unlock MLS market research advisor Vaike O’Grady noted that “year-to-date home sales are up 2.5% compared with the same period last year,” and that while overall pending sales declined 4.0%, “pending resale contracts increased 6%.” She explained that builders have relied on incentives such as price reductions and mortgage rate buydowns to attract buyers, but that competitive edge may be narrowing as resale homes gain traction.
October Versus September: A Seasonal Cool-Down
Compared with September, the metro median sales price fell 4.0% to $404,802. Closed sales fell 5.2%, pending sales dipped 1.5%, and new listings dropped 11.6%. Active listings eased 2.0% to 13,196. Homes took a little longer to sell, with average days on market rising three days to 76, and months of inventory climbed 0.8 month to 6.2.
Some of this is the normal fall slowdown. Fewer sellers list homes as the holidays approach, and many families prefer not to move in the middle of the school year. For buyers, that usually means less competition. For sellers, the buyers who are still shopping in November and December tend to be serious and motivated.
Williamson County: Prices Ease and Inventory Builds
Williamson County’s numbers matter most for our Leander readers, and October showed a clear shift toward buyers.
In October, 720 homes sold across Williamson County, a 12.8% decrease from the previous year. The median sales price was $375,250, down 9.2% year over year.
Additional county figures include:
- 990 new listings, down 14.7% from October 2025
- 4,135 active listings, down 1.7%
- 756 pending sales, down 9.1%
- An average of 73 days on the market, four days fewer than a year earlier
- 5.6 months of inventory, 0.4 month more than a year earlier
- An average close-to-list-price ratio of 92.6%, compared with 91.8% in October 2025
- $324.6 million in total dollar volume, down 16.4%
With more than five months of supply, buyers generally have more choice and more room to negotiate than they have had in years.
Still, the close-to-list ratio improved year over year. Homes that are priced right and show well are still selling close to their asking price. The difference is that buyers are being far more selective about which homes earn that kind of offer.
A Quick Look at Williamson County Rentals
For investors and anyone weighing renting versus buying, the county lease market tightened in October. The median rent was $2,100, up 5.0% from a year earlier, while active lease listings fell 30.0% and lease inventory dropped to 2.4 months. With home prices easing and rents rising, the math between renting and owning is worth a fresh look for many households.
“October’s numbers show a market that is giving buyers more breathing room than we’ve seen in a long time, especially here in Williamson County. For sellers, it’s not a reason to panic. It’s a reason to price thoughtfully, present the home well and lean on local data instead of headlines.”
– Paul and Rebekah Cummings, The Cummings Team®
What These Conditions Mean for Central Texas Home Buyers
You have more negotiating power, so use it wisely
With inventory above five months in Williamson County and above six months across the metro, buyers can often negotiate on price, repairs, closing costs or a mortgage rate buydown. Ask your lender to compare these options, because a rate buydown can sometimes lower your monthly payment more than a small price reduction.
Compare new construction and resale side by side
Builders are still offering incentives, but Unlock MLS notes that resale homes are becoming more competitive. Look at the full picture for each option, including price, incentives, lot size, HOA or MUD fees and property taxes.
The holidays can work in your favor
Fewer buyers tend to shop between Thanksgiving and New Year’s. If you are ready, that can mean less competition and sellers who are motivated to close before year-end.
What These Conditions Mean for Central Texas Home Sellers
Price for today’s buyer
Buyers have choices and are focused on monthly payments. A home that starts near the market attracts attention while the listing is fresh, which usually beats starting high and chasing the market with reductions.
Make your home easy to say yes to
Take care of obvious repairs, refresh curb appeal and invest in strong photography and marketing. When buyers are comparing many homes, condition and presentation can be the deciding factor.
Plan ahead for spring
If you are thinking about listing in early 2027, now is a great time to prepare. Getting repairs, staging and pricing strategy done over the holidays lets you hit the market ready when spring buyers start shopping.
The Bottom Line for Leander and Greater Central Texas
October’s numbers point to a market that is shifting toward buyers. Prices eased, inventory grew and buyers gained negotiating leverage, especially in Williamson County. Yet homes that sold closed closer to list price than a year ago, and resale contracts are picking up, so this is far from a stalled market.
As Unlock MLS and ABoR President John Crowe put it, “The data is an important starting point, but understanding the factors behind the numbers is what helps buyers and sellers determine when the time is right for them.” If you are thinking about buying or selling in Leander, Williamson County or anywhere in Central Texas, The Cummings Team® would love to help you understand what these numbers mean for your neighborhood and your goals. Connect with us today!
Market data is sourced from Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of REALTORS® and reflects October 2026 activity. Month-over-month figures compare October 2026 with September 2026. Statistics are broad market indicators and are not a substitute for a property-specific comparative market analysis, lending guidance or individualized financial advice.